Monday, March 30, 2015

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With nice matin the declining yen, Japan's manufacturing PMI has risen eight months. In contrast, China has been wavering near the stagnation line since early 2011. Trade war questions relate to the just-released PMI reports and also the 4th quarter US GDP report. Let's start with today's PMI releases on China and Japan. HSBC China Manufacturing PMI The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI shows Chinese Operating Conditions nice matin Deteriorate Fractionally in January. Chinese manufacturers saw a fractional deterioration in operating conditions at the start of 2015. Although output rose slightly and new orders broadly stabilised, staffing levels were cut for the fifteenth successive month. Meanwhile, relatively subdued client demand led companies to reduce nice matin their stock holdings of both post and pre-production goods in January. On the costs front, lower raw material prices led to the steepest reduction in average input costs since March 2009, which contributed to a sharp decline in prices charged. After adjusting for seasonal nice matin factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted at 49.7 in January, down slightly from the earlier flash reading (49.8), but up fractionally from 49.6 in December. This signalled a second successive monthly deterioration in the health of the sector, albeit only slight. Latest data indicated a renewed expansion of Chinese manufacturing output in January, though the rate of increase was only fractional. This was the first time that production has risen in three months. Manufacturing companies reduced their headcounts again in January. That said, the rate of job shedding nice matin was the weakest recorded in 15 months and only slight. China Manufacturing PMI Index China's manufacturing PMI has been flirting just above and just below the stagnation line since early 2011. More time has been spent in contraction than expansion in that period. Japan Posts "Solid" Growth In contrast to China, the Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI shows solid production growth at start of 2015. Key Points Headline PMI posts above 50.0 for eighth month running nice matin Further increases in output and new orders Inflationary pressures nice matin remain amid reports of yen depreciation Summary Data at the start of 2015 signalled a solid improvement in operating conditions in the Japanese manufacturing sector. Production growth continued for the sixth month running, supported by a further rise in new orders. Subsequently, payroll numbers remained in growth territory, with the latest expansion broadly in-line with the previous month. Meanwhile, nice matin upward pressures on both i

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